Jumat, 05 Desember 2014

Gold Slides as European Central Bank Snubs Bullion Purchases

Gold futures dropped after the European Central Bank said it wouldn™t consider adding to bullion purchases.
The ECB discussed buying all assets except the metal as it plans to reassess stimulus next quarter, President Mario Draghi said today. The comments come after Executive Board member Yves Mersch said last month that the bank could Ĺ“theoretically buy bullion.
Gold has rebounded 6.8 percent since touching a four-year low on Nov. 7 amid speculation that lower prices would start to attract increased physical purchases, including from central banks. Investor demand for precious metals has waned amid a rally for equities and the dollar and as inflation remained low.
Gold futures for February delivery slipped 0.1 percent to settle at $1,207.70 an ounce at 1:43 p.m. on the Comex in New York, dropping for the second time in three days.
Source : Bloomberg

Gold Retreat as Dollar Holds Advance Before ECB Policy Meeting

Gold retreated as the dollar traded near a five-year high before a European Central Bank meeting today that may give indications on further stimulus.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed before data due tomorrow that™s forecast to show U.S. jobs growth and amid speculation ECB policy makers will signal more stimulus. President Mario Draghi said last month they are open to buying a wide variety of assets.
The greenback has strengthened as the Federal Reserve considers raising borrowing costs while other central banks take steps to spur growth. A stronger dollar and higher U.S. interest rates reduce gold™s allure because the metal generally offers investors returns only through price gains.
Gold for February delivery fell 0.5 percent to $1,202.20 an ounce by 7:18 a.m. on the Comex in New York. Bullion for immediate delivery declined 0.6 percent to $1,202.25 in London, according to Bloomberg generic pricing.
Source : Bloomberg

Dollar Probes 120 Yen on U.S. Growth as Euro Traders Await ECB

The dollar strengthened to within 0.1 percent of 120 yen, reaching the highest level since July 2007, as analysts forecast that U.S. job growth will accelerate, boosting the economy while Japan™s remains mired in recession.
While the U.S. currency is being buoyed by signs of strength in the American economy, the yen and the euro are weakening as their central banks expand stimulus measures to boost growth. Europe™s shared currency touched a two-year low today as traders awaited a monetary-policy decision from the European Central Bank. Australia™s dollar slid for a sixth day after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. forecast it would decline to 79 U.S. cents.
The dollar rose 0.1 percent to 119.93 yen at 12:10 p.m. London time, after rising to 119.98, the strongest level since July 2007. The U.S. currency was little changed at $1.2313 per euro after appreciating to $1.2296, the strongest since August 2012. The yen traded at 147.66 per euro.
About $3 billion in options contracts with strikes at 120 yen per dollar expire today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, potentially limiting the decline of the Japanese currency. The greenback appreciated 14 percent against the yen this year as the Fed moved closer to raising interest rates while the Bank of Japan increased the scale of its bond purchases as recently as October.
Source : Bloomberg

Selasa, 02 Desember 2014

Gold Retreats From Five-Week High on Outlook for Stronger Dollar

Gold retreated after the biggest one-day rally in more than a year as investors weighed the outlook for a stronger dollar against a rebound in oil prices. Silver, platinum and palladium dropped.
Bullion for immediate delivery declined as much as 0.7 percent to $1,203.45 an ounce, and traded at $1,205.47 at 8:55 a.m. in Singapore, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. The metal rallied yesterday to $1,221.43, the highest level since Oct. 30, after climbing from a three-week low of $1,142.88 as some investors ended bets on lower prices.
Gold advanced 3.8 percent yesterday, the most since Sept. 2013, as crude recovered from a five-year low and the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell from the highest since 2009. The gauge of the U.S. currency remains 8.3 percent higher this year amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will start to raise interest rates next year, hurting gold™s allure. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the largest exchange-traded product backed by the metal, shrank 10 percent in 2014 to a six-year low.
Gold dropped for a third month in November as the Fed assessed the timing of rate rises, while other central banks added to stimulus, strengthening the dollar. Policy makers at the European Central Bank and Bank of England meet Dec. 4.
Source: Bloomberg

Dollar Falls From 5-Year High on Speculation It Gained Too Fast

The dollar declined from the highest level in more than five years amid speculation the currency may have strengthened too much, too fast.
The greenback slipped versus most of its 16 major peers after a gauge of the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index™s relative strength exceeded 70 on Nov. 28, a level some traders consider a signal an asset may reverse course. Russia™s ruble led a drop by some commodity-producing nations™ currencies as oil reached a five-year low. The yen gained after weakening to a seven-year low as Moody™s Investors Service cut Japan™s credit rating.
Bloomberg™s dollar index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of 10 trading partners, sank 0.3 percent to 1,103.69 at 4:11 p.m. in New York. It closed on Nov. 28 at 1,106.90, the highest level since March 2009, as it gained for a sixth consecutive week.
The dollar fell 0.2 percent to 118.36 yen, after earlier touching 119.14 yen, the strongest since August 2007. The U.S. currency depreciated 0.2 percent to $1.2473 per euro. The 18-nation currency was little changed at 147.64 yen.
Source : Bloomberg

Senin, 01 Desember 2014

Oil Sinks Commodities as Asian Stocks Fall; Dollar Gains

Oil drove commodities lower, with West Texas Intermediate crude plunging to a five-year low as gold and silver sank with industrial metals. Asian stocks fell with U.S. index futures as a gauge of Chinese manufacturing dropped more than expected, while the dollar strengthened.
WTI lost 2.1 percent to $64.75 a barrel by 10:07 a.m. in Tokyo, headed for its lowest close since July 2009. Gold sank as much as 2.1 percent as silver retreated to a five-year low, while copper and nickel lost at least 1.2 percent. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) fell 0.3 percent, fueled by declines among Australian and South Korean stocks as Japanese shares rose. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures dropped 0.2 percent. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.2 percent as the greenback reached a four-year high versus the Australian dollar.
Collapsing oil prices have driven the Bloomberg Commodity Index to its lowest level since 2009, damping the outlook for global price growth amid concerns over slowing economies. Swiss voters yesterday rejected a measure that would have forced their central bank hold at least 20 percent of its balance sheet in gold. China’s official factory index fell to 50.3 for November, below the 50.5 reading projected by economists with similar data for Japan, the euro region and the U.S. also due today.
“Concerns about disinflation and deflation are being fueled by what we’re seeing in energy and commodity markets at this point in time,” Richard Gibbs, global head of economics at Macquarie Group Ltd., Australia’s largest investment bank, said in a Bloomberg TV interview in Sydney. “Clearly the decision by the Saudis to not even countenance a cut in production has strong geopolitical undertones.”
Saudi Arabia, the biggest oil exporter among the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, was a driving force behind the 12-member group’s decision last week to maintain its collective production ceiling at 30 million barrels a day. The oil minister of Iran, which advocated for an output cut, said in an interview late last week that the “shock therapy” of a steep decline in prices is no solution to OPEC’s loss of market share to U.S. shale producers.

Source : Bloomberg

China Drafts Bank Deposit Insurance in Move to Free Rates

China will start an insurance system for bank deposits, a move toward scrapping remaining controls on interest rates and allowing lenders to fail in a more market-driven economy.
The government will insure deposits of as much as 500,000 yuan ($81,367) per saver at each bank covered, the People’s Bank of China said in a draft rule on its website yesterday. It didn’t give a start date or detail what premiums banks may pay, saying only that they may differ depending on lenders’ management and risk conditions. The PBOC is seeking feedback through Dec. 30.
Deposit insurance removes an implicit government guarantee behind China’s state-controlled banks and clears the way for the nation to deregulate savings rates, increasing competition for funds. That may exacerbate a liquidity shortage at smaller banks and boost their chance of failure as savings shift to the biggest lenders.
Deposit insurance is not only standard in all developed banking markets but in addition it is one of the least contentious of banking reforms -- this looks like an ‘easy win’ for financial sector reform,” Jim Antos, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Mizuho Securities Asia Ltd., said before the announcement. “China needs deposit insurance now because the mainland economy is less robust and there is, implicitly, a greater risk of small banks having a liquidity crisis.”

Riskiest Part

China’s savers had piled up 112 trillion yuan of local-currency deposits as of Oct. 31., while bad loans have climbed to a six-year high, pointing to stresses within the financial system. The dominance of state-controlled lenders has left savers believing in an implicit government guarantee. China is the only major economy in Asia without a formal deposit insurance system.
Such systems can help to prevent bank runs. At the same time, by acknowledging the possibility of bank failures, the plan may encourage depositors with balances exceeding 500,000 yuan at small lenders to shift to larger ones seen as more stable.
The system can “promote the establishment of market-based risk prevention and resolution mechanisms,” the central bank said in the statement.


The insured amount proposed will be enough to cover all the bank deposits of 99.6 percent of savers, the central bank said in a separate statement. BNP Paribas SA has estimated that a system of the type planned may cover 46 percent of deposit balances, based on past PBOC data. Authorities may adjust the 500,000 yuan ceiling, which includes both principal and interest, in line with economic and financial conditions, the statement said.
The rule would apply to all deposit-taking financial institutions and covers both local and foreign-currency deposits, according to the draft. A deposit insurance fund management agency, to be decided by the State Council, will set the premium rates. The ratios will be “much lower than” the starting level or current level in most countries with a deposit insurance system, and the financial impact on lenders is “very small,” the PBOC said in a separate statement.
Money in the plan could only be held by the central bank or invested in government bonds, PBOC notes, high-rated debentures or other channels approved by the State Council.

Slower Growth

Foreign lenders’ branches in China and Chinese banks overseas units aren’t covered, the statement said. Interbank deposits by other financial institutions and deposits by senior bank management in their own bank aren’t insured.
The central bank on Nov. 22 moved further toward freeing interest rates by raising the deposit-rate cap to 1.2 times the benchmark from 1.1 times. Revamping deposit rates is the “riskiest” part of liberalization, the PBOC said in July 2013, when it allowed banks to freely price loans.
China’s economy is poised for the weakest expansion since 1990 and Communist Party leaders have discussed reducing the 2015 growth target from this year’s 7.5 percent goal, a person familiar with the matter said in November.
Deposit insurance is “a clearly defined exit strategy for troubled banks,” Judy Zhang, a Hong Kong-based analyst at BNP Paribas, said in a Nov. 28 note. “It protects the public interest and shows the government is accelerating financial reform to gradually break its implicit guarantee of the financial system. However, it may lead to a deposit shift from small banks to large and medium-sized banks in the short term.”
Smaller banks face the risk of withdrawals by corporate depositors to counterparts with strong capital bases and extensive distribution networks, Zhang said. Besides liquidity risk, smaller lenders may have to bear higher funding costs to keep customers, putting pressure on their earnings, she said.
The deposit insurance system will “significantly” enhance smaller banks’ credibility and competitiveness and create a fair environment for them to compete, according to the PBOC statement.

Source : Bloomberg