Kekhawatiran akan Suku Bunga Telah Menekan Emas dalam 6 Sesi Terakhir

PT. Equityworld Futures - Emas berjangka turun untuk kelima kalinya dalam enam sesi terakhir setelah komentar oleh seorang pejabat Federal Reserve menghidupkan kembali kekhawatiran bahwa suku bunga AS akan naik dalam tahun ini.
Wakil Ketua The Fed Stanley Fischer mengatakan selama akhir pekan bahwa ada "alasan yang baik" untuk percaya bahwa inflasi akan dipercepat, meningkatkan spekulasi bahwa bank sentral tidak akan menunda kenaikan suku bunga pertama sejak 2006. Inflasi rendah yang kuat bersamaan dengan pengetatan prospek kebijakan moneter telah terus membatasi pergerakan logam, yang tidak membayar bunga atau menawarkan pengembalian, tidak seperti aset bersaing.
Emas pangkas dari gain awal bulan ini, ketika perlambatan di China dan gejolak pasar global menaikkan spekulasi bahwa The Fed akan menunggu lebih lama lagi sebelum menaikkan suku bunga. Alih-alih memberikan perlindungan dari krisis tersebut, volatilitas emas naik bersama dengan turbulensi indeks ekuitas, mengurangi daya tariknya sebagai haven. Logam naik 3,4% pada bulan Agustus, kenaikan pertama sejak bulan Mei.
Di New York, emas berjangka untuk pengiriman Desember turun 0,1% untuk menetap di $ 1,132.50 per ons pada pukul 1:41 siang di Comex. Selama pekan lalu harga emas telah turun 2,2%, yang terbesar dalam sebulan.
Kemungkinan bahwa The Fed akan meningkatkan suku bunga sebelum akhir 2015 naik menjadi 63% pada hari Senin, naik dari 48% di minggu sebelumnya, menurut perdagangan berjangka. Emas menuju penurunan tahunan beruntun ketiga setelah menguatnya perekonomian AS meredam keyakinan sebagian investor dalam logam sebagai penyimpan nilai.
Perak berjangka untuk pengiriman Desember naik 0,3% ke level $ 14,586 per ons di Comex.(frk)
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Indeks Saham China Catat Selloff Terbesar Sejak 2008

PT. Equityworld Futures - Saham China turun, indeks acuan catat penurunan terbesar dalam dua bulan terakhir sejak 2008 lalu di tengah kekhawatiran bahwa intervensi pemerintah untuk menopang pasar akan gagal.
Indeks Shanghai Composite turun sebesar 0,8 persen ke level 3,205.99 pada penutupan perdagangan, pengupas kerugian sebanyak 3,8 persen. Indeks SSE 50, yang mewakili saham terbesar di Shanghai, rally sebanyak 6,7 persen dari intraday terrendahnya. Indeks Citic Securities Co anjlok sebesar 5 persen pasca Xinhua News Agency melaporkan bahwa pejabat eksekutif perusahaan tersebut ditahan karena dicurigai melakukan insider trading dan regulator sekuritas mengatakan memesan industri broker untuk meningkatkan kontribusinya untuk menyelamatkan pasar saham nasional. Spekulasi bearish di pasar opsi naik karena pedagang terbebani tingkat dukungan negara sebelum parade kemenangan Perang Dunia II pekan ini.
Ayunan di pasar saham China bulan ini telah mengguncang investor seluruh dunia karena mereka berjuang untuk mengantisipasi tindakan kebijakan dalam perekonomian terbesar kedua di dunia tersebut. Saham menguat hampir sebesar 10 persen selama Kamis dan Jumat terkait spekulasi otoritas yang menopang pasar sebelum Presiden Xi Jinping berpidato di parade tersebut, pemerintah akan meningkatkan kekuatan militer dan politik. (izr)
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Saham Asia turun, Memperpanjang Penurunan Bulanan Terbesar Sejak 2012

PT. Equityworld Futures - Saham Asia jatuh, memperpanjang penurunan bulanan terbesar sejak Mei 2012 lalu, karena investor menimbang komentar dari pertemuan akhir pekan para pembuat kebijakan moneter.
Indeks MSCI Asia Pacific turun anjlok sebesar 0,6 persen ke level 130,26 pukul 09:06 di Tokyo, di jalur penurunan sebesar 8,3 persen pada Agustus. Kontrak pada indeks Standard & Poor 500 melemah 1,1 persen.
Ada alasan yang baik untuk percaya laju inflasi akan meningkat, Wakil Ketua Federal Reserve Stanley Fischer mengatakan kepada para delegasi di pertemuan tahunan Federal Reserve Kansas City di Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Sementara Fischer berhati-hati untuk mengatakan bahwa ia tidak member sinyal kenaikan suku yang akan datang, pernyataan itu menyarankan kepada Komite Pasar Terbuka Federal (FOMC) untuk tidak mengesampingkan pergerakan tersebut ketika melakukan pertemuan di Washington pada 16-17 September mendatang. (izr)
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Emas Capai Level Tertinggi dalam Lebih dari Enam Minggu Terkait Fed

PT. Equityworld Futures - Emas menguat untuk hari kelima ke level tertinggi dalam lebih dari enam minggu seiring tanda-tanda kemungkinan Federal Reserve menunda kenaikan suku bunga karena  masih rendahnya inflasi dan menyebarnya selloff di pasar negara berkembang.
Emas untuk pengiriman segera naik sebanyak 1,4 persen ke level $ 1,168.39 per ounce, level tertinggi sejak 7 Juli, sebelum diperdagangkan pada level $ 1,158.75 di pukul 02:57 siang waktu Singapura, menurut harga publik Bloomberg. Logam ini telah melonjak 3,9 persen minggu ini dan bersiap untuk meraih keuntungan terbesar sejak Januari.
Pejabat Fed menunjukkan kekhawatiran atas rendahnya inflasi, menurut laporan dari pertemuan bulan lalu, menandakan kenaikan tingkat suku bunga mungkin akan dilakukan pada bulan Desember bukan bulan depan. Keputusan China untuk mendevaluasi mata uangnya di tengah pertumbuhan yang lambat dan prospek suku bunga AS yang lebih tinggi telah mendorong penjualan di pasar negara berkembang dan komoditas. Indeks manufaktur China jatuh ke posisi terendah dalam enam tahun pada hari Jumat.
Emas masih 2,2 persen lebih rendah tahun ini. Harga turun ke level $ 1,077.40 pada bulan Juli, tingkat yang merupakan level terendah dalam lebih dari lima tahun.(sdm)
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Chinese Stocks Sink as Currency to Economy Concern Spur Outflows

PT. Equityworld Futures - Chinese stocks slumped, with a gauge of shares in Hong Kong falling to an eight-month low, as foreigners pulled funds amid concern about the weaker outlook for the yuan and economic growth.
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index dropped 0.9 percent to 10,962.24 at the close. Net outflows from Chinese and Hong Kong equities reached $531 million in the week to Aug. 12, the ninth week of sales out of the past 10, China International Capital Corp. said. Ping An Insurance (Group) Co. led losses by insurers as the government seeks to contain the fallout from blasts in Tianjin port. Airlines jumped in mainland trading, spurring a late-day rebound for the Shanghai Composite Index, which added 0.7 percent.
The yuan sank the most in 21 years last week after the government allowed markets greater sway in setting the currency’s level. China’s industrial production, investment and retail data all trailed analysts’ estimates, according to data released this month. The securities regulator signaled on Friday China Securities Finance Corp. will reduce the scale of its intervention in the stock market. The fund has become one of the most influential investors since a $4 trillion rout.
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Saham AS Tertekan Terkait Data Manufaktur Seiring Penurunan Saham Energi

PT. Equityworld Futures - Saham AS jatuh, pasca indeks Standard & Poor 500 menguat pekan lalu, seiring kinerja sektor manufaktur di New York merosot pada bulan Agustus dan melemahnya saham energi.
Indeks S&P 500 turun sebesar 0,5 persen ke level 2,081.49 pukul 09:32 pagi di New York.
Indeks S&P 500 menguat 0,7 persen pekan lalu, indeks acuan menghapus gain untuk tahun terkait devaluasi mata uang China sebelum melakukan perputaran intraday terbesar dalam tiga tahun terakhir. Indeks S&P 500 telah ditransaksikan di kisaran perdagangan ketat dalam sembilan dekade terakhir.
Sektor manufaktur di wilayah New York merosot pada laju tercepat sejak merosot ke dalam resesi terakhir, menurut laporan dari Federal Reserve Bank of New York hari ini.
Indeks Empire State cabang bank sentral anjlok menjadi minus 14,9 pada bulan Agustus, level terendah sejak April 2009, dari 3,9 bulan sebelumnya. Pembacaan kurang dari nol sinyal ekonomi akan mengalami kontraksi.
Investor mengamati laporan ekonomi untuk mengukur kesehatan perekonomian. Federal Reserve akan merilis risalah dari pertemuan bulan Juli pada 19 Agustus mendatang, ekspektasi pasar kenaikan suku bunga pada bulan September naik dari seminggu sebelumnya menjadi sekitar 50-50. (izr)
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Japan Stocks Rise, Following U.S. Equities Higher After GDP Data

PT. Equityworld Futures - Japanese stocks rose, following a gain in U.S. equities, as a report showed Japan’s economy contracted last quarter by less than economists forecast.
Shionogi & Co. gained 2.9 percent after Mizuho Financial Group Inc. raised its share-price target on the drugmaker. Digital Garage Inc. jumped 3 percent after the web service provider’s operating profit beat analyst estimates. Sompo Japan Nipponkoa Holdings Inc. added 2.4 percent after a report the insurer will raise premiums for the first time in eight years. Oil explorer Inpex Corp. slid 0.7 percent following a decline in crude prices.
The Topix index added 0.4 percent to 1,670.73 at the trading break in Tokyo, with all but seven of it 33 industry groups rising. Volume was 33 percent below the 30-day intraday average. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.4 percent to 20,590.26.
A government report Monday showed Japan’s economy shrank an annualized 1.6 percent in the three months through June, snapping two quarters of expansion. Analysts forecast a 1.8 percent contraction after the economy grew a revised 4.5 percent in the first quarter.
The contraction came as consumers and businesses cut spending, putting pressure on the prime minister to return his focus to Abenomics. Since coming to power in December 2012, Shinzo Abe has delivered unprecedented monetary easing and fiscal stimulus that helped push the Topix stock index to an eight-year high this month, but failed to translate into a broader economic recovery.
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Gold Reclaims $1,100 as it Logs 3 Session Winning Streak

PT. Equityworld Futures - Gold futures finished higher Monday, breaking above $1,100 an ounce Monday, as comments from Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer suggested the U.S. central bank may not hike interest rates in September as the market has assumed.
Gold traders have been anticipating an interest-rate hike for to Bloomberg TV Monday morning delivered a shot in the arm to gold and other precious metals, including silver. Gold, which offers investors no interest payments, could lose some of its appeal to higher-yielding assets.
For December delivery, gold futures picked up $10, or 0.9%, to settle at $1,104.10 an ounce, coming off its highs of $1,108.50 of the session but still solidly higher.
In other metals, October platinum climbed $27.60, or 2.9%, to wrap up the session at $989.80 an ounce, while September palladium tacked on $9.30, or 1.6%, to end at $606.20 an ounce.
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Bursa Asia Melemah Terhadap Data China dan Spekulasi Suku Bunga AS

PT. Equityworld Futures - Bursa saham Asia jatuh setelah China melaporkan penurunan yang lebih besar dari perkiraan ekspor dan harga produsen serta data pekerjaan AS meningkatkan ekspektasi pedagang untuk kenaikan suku bunga Federal Reserve di bulan depan.
Indeks MSCI Asia Pacific turun 0,1% ke level 140,89 pada pukul 09:01 pagi di Tokyo. Indeks tersebut telah merosot dalam tiga minggu terakhir di tengah upaya pemerintah China untuk membendung penurunan pasar ekuitas dan karena investor menganalisis data ekonomi AS sebagai petunjuk terkait waktu kenaikan suku bunga AS untuk pertama kali sejak tahun 2006. Pedagang di suku bunga berjangka  yang memprediksi probabilitas dari kenaikan di bulan depan sebesar 54%.
Indeks Topix Jepang turun 0,4%. Indeks Kospi Korea Selatan turun 0,1%. Indeks S&P/ASX 200 Australia naik 0,1% dan Indeks NZX 50 Selandia Baru sedikit berubah. Pasar saham di Singapura ditutup untuk liburan.
Data pada hari Jumat menunjukkan pengusaha AS menambahkan 215.000 pekerjaan pada bulan Juli sementara tingkat pengangguran bertahan di level terendah tujuh tahun sebesar 5,3%. Gain dalam gaji mengikuti kenaikan 231.000 pada bulan Juni yang lebih besar dari perkiraan sebelumnya. Sementara laporan tersebut juga menunjukkan kenaikan dalam jam kerja, penghasilan rata-rata per jam naik kurang dari perkiraan sebesar 2,1% dari tahun sebelumnya.
Pengiriman dari China pada Juli menyusut 8,3%, lebih dari lima kali penurunan yang diproyeksikan oleh analis, memicu kekhawatiran atas ekonomi terbesar di Asia, yang diperkirakan tumbuh pada kecepatan paling lambat dalam tahun ini sejak tahun 1990. Harga produsen mencatatkan penurunan tajam sejak 2009, menurut data pada hari Minggu.
Kontrak pada indeks Hang Seng dan Indeks Hong Kong Hang Seng China Enterprises turun setidaknya 0,5% pada Jumat lalu. Berjangka di Indeks FTSE China A50 kehilangan 0,2%, sedangkan pada Indeks Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 menambahkan 2,6% di sebagian besar perdagangan terakhir.(frk)
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Gold Holds Near One-Week High as U.S. Rate Rise Seen Priced In

PT. Equityworld Futures - Gold held near a one-week high on speculation that investors have factored in a U.S. interest-rate increase, which may happen as early as next month.
Bullion for immediate delivery added 0.1 percent to $1,095.40 an ounce by 10:35 a.m. in London, according to Bloomberg generic pricing. It reached $1,099.63 on Friday, the highest since July 31. Futures for December delivery were little changed at $1,094.50 on the Comex.
The metal declined Friday as U.S. equities and a gauge of the dollar’s strength fell. U.S. employers added 215,000 jobs in July, while payroll gains in the previous two months were revised up, the Labor Department report showed. The Federal Reserve has keep rates near zero since 2008 to bolster economic growth.
Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products fell for the 16th time in 17 days, data compiled by Bloomberg show. Assets declined 2 metric tons to 1,511.8 tons as of Friday.
Silver for immediate delivery gained 0.7 percent to $14.9322 an ounce in London. Platinum rose 0.7 percent to $969.92 an ounce while palladium added 0.5 percent to $603.90 an ounce.
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India 'Reclaims' No.1 Gold Demand from China

PT. Equityworld Futures - GOLD demand in India beat China as the world's No.1 for the first time since 2013 in the second quarter of this year, according to the latest data.
Global consultancy Thomson Reuters GFMS says "seasonal strength" between April and June saw India "reclaim the top spot in regard to total gold consumption."
Across the first 6 months of the year, however, China came just ahead according to GFMS's new Gold Survey 2015 Q2 Update & Outlook.
India was "easily the biggest consumer of all gold products in the second quarter," the report says, despite seeing no sizeable change in either jewelry or gold investment demand from a year earlier. China's household demand fell 24% in contrast, with the drop split across jewelry and investment.
Even in India, however, "ample supplies" dented prices in the retail market says consultancy Metals Focus, thanks to a surge in H1 gold bullion imports.
Indeed, "since mid-May the local price switched to a consistent discount to London" “ center of the world's wholesale market, and the global price benchmark “ widening by late-June to $10 per ounce, "a level not seen in a couple of years," says Metals Focus in its latest Indian Focus Monthly.
Looking ahead to the last 6 months of 2015, second-half gold jewelry demand in 2014 was 20% greater than demand between January and June, according to GFMS's data. But while this year's monsoon rains have now improved “ allaying fears of a "second consecutive drought year" according to the Indian Express, and boosting jewelers expectations for H2 sales “ the crucial Hindu calendar will bring 40% fewer auspicious days for marriage ceremonies, denting a key source of demand for gifts.
That is "a positive sign for retailers," the Economic Times quotes Ashok Minawala, former chairman of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation. Because "it is a tradition in the farming community to buy gold once they sell crop," he explains, some "60-70% of India's gold demand comes from the rural market."
However, "the number of auspicious days for wedding is less this year," the same paper last month quoted Ketan Shroff of the India Bullion & Jewellers Association. "[That] will definitely dent the demand of gold jewelry during the second half of this year."
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Gold Fall as Goldman Sachs Says Prices May Drop Below $1,000

PT. Equityworld Futures - Gold fell, trading near a five-year low, as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said rising U.S. interest rates may lead to deeper losses.
A government report Monday showed American households kept spending in June, capping a stronger quarter for the biggest part of the economy, as incomes rose. The Federal Reserve signaled last week that it will probably raise rates this year as the labor market improves. Goldman in a report Monday reiterated that gold may fall below $1,000 an ounce, or more than 8 percent below Monday’s closing futures price.
Gold tumbled to a five-year low in July as Fed Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank is on track for raising rates for the first time since 2006, curbing the appeal of gold because it doesn’t pay interest like assets such as equities. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index gained in July by the most since March, reducing demand for bullion as an alternative asset. Money managers stayed net-short on bullion for a second week as of July 28, government data showed Friday.
Gold futures for December delivery declined 0.5 percent to settle at $1,089.40 an ounce at 1:44 p.m. on the Comex in New York, falling for a fourth day in five sessions. The metal fell to $1,073.70 on July 24, the lowest since February 2010.
Silver futures for September delivery dropped 1.6 percent to $14.515 an ounce on the Comex, the biggest loss since July 15.
Platinum futures for October delivery slid 1.8 percent to $967.10 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the largest drop since July 7. Palladium futures for September delivery declined 1.3 percent to $603.20 an ounce.
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ECB Approves Greek Proposals for Market Reopening, Official Says

PT. Equityworld Futures - The European Central Bank has given approval to Greece’s proposals for the reopening of the country’s financial markets, a spokeswoman for the Athens Stock Exchange said today in a telephone call.
The timing of the reopening will be decided by Greece’s finance ministry, in a decree that will also decide any trade restrictions and ground rules for trading, said the spokeswoman, who asked not to be named in line with policy.
Spokesmen for the Bank of Greece, the ECB and the Greek finance ministry weren’t immediately available for comment. Trading on the Athens Stock Exchange has been suspended since June 29, following the introduction of capital controls in Greece.
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U.S. Stocks Fluctuate as Facebook Pares Decline, Mondelez Gains

PT. Equityworld Futures - U.S. stocks fluctuated as Facebook Inc. pared earlier losses and a rally in Mondelez International Inc. helped offset Procter & Gamble Co.’s decline after results disappointed.
Facebook dropped 2.9 percent, and earlier more than 5 percent, after second-quarter spending jumped 82 percent. P&G retreated 3.5 percent after forecasting sluggish sales and profit growth. Whole Foods Market Inc. tumbled 11 percent after cutting its sales forecast. Modelez added 5 percent as quarterly profits beat estimates, and Western Digital Corp. jumped 10 percent.
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 0.1 percent to 2,105.90 at 12:14 p.m. in New York, after falling as much as 0.6 percent. The gauge rebounded above its average prices during the past 50 and 100 days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 16.83 points, or 0.1 percent, to 17,734.56. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 0.1 percent.
A report today showed gross domestic product rose at a 2.3 percent annualized rate, and a revised 0.6 percent advance in the first quarter wiped out a previously reported contraction. Consumer spending grew more than projected. Separate data showed applications for unemployment benefits rose last week after reaching a four-decade low, consistent with a stronger labor market.
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Asian Stocks Follow U.S. Slump as Investors Await China Data

PT. Equityworld Futures - Asian stocks fell, after the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted its worst week since January, as investors awaited data on China amid a selloff in commodities.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.4 percent to 141.95 as of 9:00 a.m. in Tokyo after the Dow slumped 2.9 percent last week. China reports on industrial company profits Monday, providing further clues on the slowdown in Asia’s largest economy. Gold is trading near a five-year low and oil is in a bear market amid concern raw material supplies are outpacing demand. In the U.S., data are due on durable and capital goods orders, with investors looking to this week’s meeting of the Federal Reserve to gauge the timing for higher interest rates.
Japan’s Topix index fell 0.7 percent. South Korea’s Kospi index dropped 0.5 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index lost 0.2 percent and New Zealand’s NZX 50 Index slipped 0.4 percent.
Futures on Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index sank 0.7 percent in most recent trading, with contracts on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, a gauge of mainland Chinese stocks listed in the city, down 1.1 percent. Futures on the FTSE China A50 Index, which tracks the largest Chinese companies, lost 0.8 percent and CSI 300 Index contracts declined 3 percent in Friday trade.
S&P 500 e-mini futures were little changed on Monday. The underlying equity gauge lost 1.1 percent on Friday.
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Emas Turun Terkait Outlook Suku Bunga AS, Palladium Melanjutkan Rebound

PT. Equityworld Futures - Emas tahan pelemahan pasca penurunan minguan jangka terpanjangnya sejak 2012 pada kekhawatiran bahwa suku bunga AS akan segera naik setelah September, para otoritas The Fed akan melakukan pertemuan pada pekan ini. Palladium naik.
Bullion untuk pengiriman segera turun sebanyak 0,3% menjadi $ 1,095.35 per ons, dan diperdagangkan di level $ 1,096.38 pada 9:00 pagi di Singapura, menurut harga Bloomberg. Logam ini turun selama lima pekan terakhir dan turun menjadi $ 1,077.40 pada hari Jumat, uang merupakan level terendah sejak Februari 2010.
Emas untuk pengiriman Desember naik 1% menjadi $ 1.097 per ons di New York Comex. Harga paling aktif turun 4,1% pekan lalu, jatuh ke level $ 1,073.70 pada hari Jumat, level terendah sejak Februari 2010.
Indeks Bloomberg Dollar Spot, yang menelusuri greenback terhadap 10 mata uang utama, sedikit berubah pada hari Senin setelah naik untuk pekan kelima. Para otorritas The Fed akan memulai pertemuan dua hari nya pada Selasa.
Perak untuk pengiriman segera naik sebanyak 0,5% menjadi $ 14,7513 per ons, dan berada di level $ 14,7151. Logam ini merosot ke level $ 14,3842 pada hari Jumat, yang merupakan harga terendah sejak 2009.
Platinum sedikit berubah pada $ 986,40 per ons setelah mundur ke level terendah enam tahun pada 20 Juli Palladium naik 0,2% menjadi $ 625,85 per ons, melanjutkan rebound di pekan lalu dari $ 596,75 pada 20 Juli, yang merupakan harga terendah sejak Oktober 2012 lalu.(yds)
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Asian Stocks Outside Japan Drop as Energy, Gold Producers Fall

PT. Equityworld Futures - Asian stocks outside Japan dropped, with energy producers, miners and information technology shares leading declines.
Santos Ltd., Australia’s third-largest energy company, fell 1.6 percent in Sydney after Brent futures extended losses. Newcrest Mining Ltd., the nation’s biggest gold producer, sank 10 percent after the precious metal tumbled to the lowest level since 2010. Innolux Corp. slid 6.3 percent in Taipei after Citigroup Inc. downgraded its rating on the supplier of screens to Apple Inc. Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. dropped 6.6 percent in Seoul, extending its record weekly drop.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index slipped 0.3 percent to 463.22 as of 4:03 p.m. in Hong Kong. The measure last week posted its biggest weekly advance since April as Chinese shares rallied amid speculation banks will support the market.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel held out the prospect of limited debt relief as crisis-ravaged Greece prepares to reopen its banks three weeks after they were shut. Monday is the day the country must reimburse the European Central Bank 4.2 billion euros ($4.5 billion), including interest, as bonds bought during its last debt crisis mature.
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CHINESE Gold Reserves

PT. Equityworld Futures - China shocked the bullion market by declaring today its official gold holdings for the first time in 6 years - the surprise was less that they had done so, and more at the incredibly small figure which is less than half the market consensus. China last reported a figure of 1054 tonnes in April 2009 which has risen to only 1658 tonnes today - we don't believe the figure, but we struggle to understand the motivation for down-playing it.
With only 1658 tonnes of gold reserves this would put China in 5th position behind the US (8133 tonnes), Germany (3383 tonnes), Italy (2451 tonnes) and France (2435 tonnes). As a country with the world's largest economy by some measures, one would have expected they would be well north of the German figure really. So what is at play here ...
China is seeking a place at top table in financial markets by having its currency accepted under IMF rules (the so-called Special Drawing Rights) at a meeting to be held in October - in other words, to have the Yuan included by Central banks around the world as a reserve currency. As part of this process, China would need to fully declare its gold reserves ; in that sense the timing is as expected - its just the amount that makes no sense.
Secondly, China is struggling with an equity market in freefall and some have suggested that the timing of the declaration is to give comfort to domestic investors that their reserves are size-able ... but that makes no sense either, because they aren't !
The third explanation - and here we move into the under-world of conspiracies, is that China wants to downplay gold as part of its reserves - especially as they are world's top buyers both for domestic jewellery and to top up their official reserves (yes they are also the top producers but they are significant net buyers). This is to say that China may be adopting the reverse of the UK policy of the late 1990's where it telegraphed in advance to the world its intentions to sell most of its gold reserves - thereby prompting a fall in prices to a 21 year low ... thank you Gordon Brown.
I would suspect a decision has already been made by the IMF in principal about the Yuan joining the US dollar as a reserve currency (although I have no proof of that), effectively seeking to fill a void in reserves as Central Banks dessert the Euro ... and it does therefore need to overstate its gold holdings.
There is an apocryphal story about the Chinese Premier on a state visit to Paris who was asked what he thought about the French Revolution ... "Too early to say" was his reply ... which caused a guffaw amongst observers who were aware of China having an uber-long term view on things (actually he misunderstood the question !) ... perhaps they are p[laying the long game both with regards to the economy and with regards to declaring its hand fully and openly on gold.
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Gold Plunges 4.2% to Lowest Since March ’10 as Platinum Slides

PT. Equityworld Futures - Gold sank 4.2 percent to the lowest level in more than five years, dropping for a sixth day, on prospects for higher U.S. interest rates and after China said it held less metal in reserves than some analysts expected. Platinum extended its decline to the lowest since 2009.

Bullion for immediate delivery fell as low as $1,086.18 an ounce, the lowest price since March 2010, and traded at $1,099.09 at 9:42 a.m. in Singapore. Prices sank 2.5 percent last week, the most since March.

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Gold Stalls as Investors Shift Focus to Timing of U.S. Rate Bump

PT. Equityworld Futures - Gold traders were hesitant to act before testimony this week from Janet Yellen that may provide more details on the timing of increases for U.S. interest rates.
The metal settled little changed in New York, while silver and platinum dropped. Federal Reserve Chair Yellen, who last week maintained her call for a rate boost this year, will deliver her congressional testimony starting Wednesday.
Gold futures for August delivery fell 0.2 percent to $1,153.50 an ounce at 1:49 p.m. on the Comex in New York, dropping for the fourth straight session.
Investors increased global holdings in exchange-traded products backed by gold for the first time in four sessions, data compiled by Bloomberg show. On Monday, assets rose 1.7 metric tons to 1,586.9 tons, which is still close to the lowest since 2009.
Silver futures for September delivery dropped 0.9 percent to $15.315 an ounce on the Comex.
Platinum futures for October delivery declined 0.7 percent to $1,028.40 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Palladium futures for September delivery fell 0.3 percent to $657.10 an ounce.
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